Now, if my EU and UJ forecast works out, then EJ could be the trade of the week. Why? Because a combined strength of the EURO and weakness of the YEN, can create a very bullish scenario on EJ. It can possibly be even a turning point for EJ, for more bullish action in the coming weeks. SL below last week’s low, but since yen can be volatile, more than a few pips below would be recommended.
UJ is showing very strong bottoming above 107. We didn’t break 106.80 for over a month! So this might be a good time to go long. On the upside, we have a first strong barrier of 108, so the first spot to close longs could be 107.90-108.10, but if we break and stay above, the pair can easily continue towards 110 and higher. SL area is very clear to see and no brainer, at 106.80. If not breached, it is a clear signal for bulls!
We had a strong rejection from 727 this week on EU. A 100 pip rejection on the same day, to be exact. Even London and NY turned bullish below 800. Like I posted mid week, I saw it as a trap. Next week will confirm, if I was right or not. I am expecting some correction early next week. On friday, during NY session, 780-790 was a very strong support, so that would be the first area I would wait to come back to, next week. Second strong support area was in the 750 range, which might be re-visited, too, but I wouldn’t bet on it. A SL is easy, if 727 stays untouched next week, we will definitely see 880, at least, with my final target of 960. So a SL for the week might be safe below 690, because if we break below, it will most likely turn bearish and then we might see even the 500 area again. So, if you are long, watch the early week PA very carefully, we need a clear rejection below 800, to stay long for the whole week. Below are the ideas shown on a H1 and H4 chart.
My main pair for next week will be EURUSD again. Friday close was around 870. On monday/tuesday, I expect a push towards 910-915 minimum, that might be the first hurdle on the way up, but that is my first and easiest target. If broken and safely above, 950-960 would be the second target. I won’t trade after that most probably and just wait what happens next. I can see 1020-30 next week, too, but won’t trade towards it, 960 will be enough. For swing traders, who trade into 1050-80, a SL of 790 is good enough.
EURGBP is bottoming strongly in smaller time frames, so a spike up is very likely. With a SL below last week’s low, which was 8681, we should re-test 8770, at least. Up to 8830 maybe. With a SL just 10-20 pips below 8681 and a target of 80-120 pips, the profit/risk ratio is very good. So not a good week for hardcore bears, even though my medium term target is 8300-8400, but until the current low is broken, a spike up is more likely than further down at this point.
And lastly EURJPY. Since I am expecting a push up in euro and eurjpy is bottoming on both small and medium term time frames, a spike up towards 117.70-90, is very likely. SL is easy to set, below this month’s low, either 116.30 or a safer one at 115.90.
I don’t expect much from monday, since its still holiday and volume will be thin, but tuesday, we should be moving nicely again. I expect the dollar to go up first to re-test the big number of 100 or close to it. From then on, we will see if it continues up for more or starts dropping from there. It will be a very tough week to trade, as technically, I see a bullish setup on EU(daily and weekly) and also bullish on USDx(H1 and H4), but lower time frames there. Those can’t happen at the same time, obviously, so lets go with the timetrames. Those would suggest that dollar goes up first, so EU down and then the higher time frames come into play and dollar starts dropping heavily and EU starts rising. So medium to long term, I will be looking for long opportunities on EU and short term for short opportunities. I won’t go long on EU until we re-test 860+-, though. That would be my first long entry, if bottomed out there. Second would be closer to the lower low, between 650-700.