EU overshoot my targets last week too easily. I had a first target of 950 and second of 1000, where I expected a turn towards 820 again. But as I posted earlier on twitter, to me, that thursday NY spike was a trap. I expect that one to be “fixed” early next week. So my first target on the hourly chart is the 990-1010 area.
Checking the sentiment of the market and many analysts, people are waiting for that area to hit to go long from there. I am not going to do that. If we go towards 1000, I won’t long, even if I may miss a trade there. I expect the level to break, after sucking in some retail bulls. I expect 950 minimum, possibly lower, towards 820. Because if you look at the small picture, smaller timeframes, it looks very bullish…but if you look at the bigger picture and the daily chart, this can easily go down to re-test 630 and what if it breaks lower? I wouldn’t want to be long from the 1000 area and then watch euro drop towards a new low. So I will be very cautious with longs next week, probably just scalp them on the way. If we keep dropping until thursday, I will long scalp the drop for a quick ECB spike up and then see what happens, if we continue upwards after it or go back down for more lows.
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