I will start with USDCHF this week, because this friday I saw something I have seen before, one year ago, to be exact, also on a friday. Back then UCHF made a surprising spike above parity, it hit something around 1.0020 and looked super bullish. I remember it, because one “guru” on forexfactory, with some of the most followers, admired by many(not me), predicted a super strong UCHF in the following months, targetting 400-500 more pips up. But it was more than clear that it was a topping pattern, more than anything else. The same friday, the pair went back towards 1.0000 and closed there, still seemed strong. On the coming monday, it dropped over 100 pips and the drop didn’t stop…now its over 1000 pips, since it was dropping all year. Just tells you how you should always do your own analysis and never blindly follow anyone, nor me for that matter. But back to UCHF…this friday, I saw a very similar price action to the one from one year ago…now we dropped below 9000, pair seemed dead as there was no power to bring it up 5 pips…eventually corrected itself and broke back above 9000. A very similar thing…9000 is a very strong and important number…just like parity was…and a strong franc is killing the swiss economy at the moment, which worries even the SNB, since they are trying to interfere in the markets for months now. Eventually they may succeed. I definitely don’t want to be the one trading against a central bank. Now, I am not saying UCHF will go up 1000 pips…BUT it definitely should go up some…and most probably higher than it was in the past few weeks or months. My first big target is at 9200 and if broken to the upside, I think we have a new trend, uptrend that is.
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