This month is tough for dollar bulls…especially EURUSD is having a one-way ride, which is very strange. Its normal that fundamentals are behind technicals…it can take some time for fundamentals to be shown on the chart, but this month even technicals don’t seem to work. I keep thinking why that is…but for that to understand, I will need to see the following moves. It could be that the big boys know something we don’t and try to load up at better prices. If a brexit no-deal was announced this year, then it would make all sense. But next week is Christmas week and we have only 3 regular trading days, thursday and friday will be most likely “dead”. I expect more from the week after, New Year’s week and then the first full week in january. Those should be big movers and lift the dollar up. Right now USDx is hovering around 90 and whats a better spot to build longs than now. We saw a similar fight at 100, which also took some time, but once bulls lost there, we had a 1000 pip drop. As of now, my dollar target is 93-95 “only”, lets see what happens if its reached.
I also have a different reason to believe that EURUSD will start a drop and its on the EURJPY and USDJPY chart. UJ is close to what I think will be the bottom and should go up from here. Even though it can range in this area for a while, so no crazy upmove or downmove are expected for now. And when you look at the EJ chart, its at a strong resistance zone and can easily drop 300-400 pips. Now combine those 2 together and you get EURUSD as a full bear into the coming weeks.
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